Nicholas Blanford, a Hezbollah expert at the Atlantic Council, interprets the video as a message to Israel, indicating that Hezbollah has only begun to demonstrate the damage it can inflict. The video appears amid ongoing low-scale border conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel, which have persisted since Oct. 8. Hezbollah claims its actions aim to reduce pressure on Gaza, where Israeli operations have caused significant casualties and displacement since Oct. 7, following attacks by Hamas on southern Israel.
Hezbollah has offered to cease strikes on northern Israel if Israel agrees to a ceasefire with Hamas, but Israeli attacks have continued, raising regional tensions. The video is seen as an attempt by Hezbollah to deter further Israeli actions by showcasing its hidden capabilities.
While the video provides a glimpse of Hezbollah's tunnel network, the exact location and scope remain unknown, likely an intentional move to maintain operational secrecy. Analysts believe the video is part of a broader psychological war between Hezbollah and Israel, especially after the recent assassinations of key figures like Hezbollah's Fuad Shukr and Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh.
Israel's threats to use "bunker buster" bombs, designed to penetrate deep underground, have been countered by Hezbollah's display of its underground capabilities. Hezbollah's tunnel system could prove more effective than Hamas' in Gaza, due to Hezbollah's more advanced resources.
The video also seems intended to reassure Hezbollah's supporters in Lebanon, who may be frustrated by the group's delayed retaliation for Shukr's killing. Although Hezbollah has not yet engaged in major military action while ceasefire talks are ongoing, the video signals strength and resolve to its base.
However, analysts like Mohanad Hage Ali suggest the video alone won't fully restore deterrence. Hezbollah's current strategy seems focused on managing the conflict under "rules of engagement," though recent Israeli actions have tested these limits.
Blanford views the video as part of a broader deterrence strategy, indicating that Hezbollah likely plans future actions against Israel. The video serves as a reminder to Israel of the more advanced weaponry Hezbollah could deploy if the conflict escalates.
