In its latest World Economic Outlook report, released this month, the IMF projected that South Korea’s per capita GDP would fall to $34,642 this year — a 4.1 percent decline from last year’s $36,129 — slipping below 2022 levels.
The downgrade reflects mounting concerns over South Korea’s economic trajectory amid persistent political uncertainty and sluggish domestic demand, making the symbolic $40,000 benchmark more elusive.
Under the revised forecast, South Korea’s per capita GDP is expected to inch up to $35,880 next year, $37,367 in 2027, and $38,850 in 2028, before finally surpassing the $40,000 mark at $40,341 in 2029.
The adjustment marks a notable shift from the IMF’s outlook just six months ago. In October, the fund predicted that South Korea would reach $41,031 in per capita GDP by 2027, with the 2029 figure projected at $44,347.
The IMF’s broader economic projections for South Korea paint a similarly cautious picture.
Real GDP growth is forecast to remain at a modest 1.0 percent this year, gradually recovering to 2.1 percent by 2027 before tapering off to around 1.8 percent by 2030.
reporter
Kim Dong-young
davekim0807@ajupress.com
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