The U.S. has escalated its military presence in the region, deploying a second aircraft carrier and a missile-equipped submarine in response to threats from Iran and Hezbollah, who have vowed to retaliate against Israel following recent assassinations of key leaders from both groups. The U.S. sees a ceasefire in Gaza as crucial for regional stability.
During a visit to Lebanon, U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein emphasized the need for diplomatic solutions, suggesting that a deal could also help de-escalate the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. However, President Joe Biden has expressed cautious optimism, acknowledging the challenges while remaining committed to finding a resolution.
Hamas's decision not to send a delegation to the talks is unlikely to derail negotiations, as these have always been conducted indirectly through mediators like Qatar and Egypt. The main issue, according to former Israeli hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin, is the lack of motivation among both Israeli and Hamas leaders to reach an agreement. Baskin argues that the mediators appear more eager for a deal than the parties themselves.
Chen Avigdori, whose wife and daughter were among those kidnapped by Hamas on Oct. 7, is campaigning for the release of the remaining hostages. He criticizes both Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar for the stalled negotiations, accusing Sinwar of neglecting his own people and Netanyahu of missing opportunities to finalize a deal.
Analysts believe Sinwar may now be focused on preserving Hamas, which has suffered significant military losses but has not been completely destroyed. Meanwhile, Netanyahu faces political risks, as any agreement could potentially cost him his coalition, especially if it involves releasing large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, a move his far-right allies oppose.
Despite the challenges, Israeli media reports suggest that proposals have been put forward to bridge some of the gaps in negotiations. For example, Netanyahu's demand to keep Israeli forces on Gaza's border with Egypt to prevent weapons smuggling has been countered with suggestions for technological solutions and international cooperation.
Hamas, however, accuses Israel of introducing new demands, insisting it is ready to implement the terms agreed upon last month. Israel denies adding new conditions, framing its actions as clarifications of existing agreements.
While the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt have some leverage, it may not be enough to force an agreement if the leaders themselves are not fully committed. Ultimately, the success of these talks, the situation in Gaza, the fate of the hostages, and the broader regional stability hinge on the decisions of two determined leaders.
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